Wondering how clever/devious Nicola Sturgeon is? Or how strong Mr Ed is?

[therealjr]

I've come across a website called Electoral Calculus.
They appear to have the most accurate weighted dated based on all the polling results that are coming in. (they were the closest to predicting the full result in 2010)
Their results over recent days have wavered between the Tories winning by 3-5 seats and labour winning by about the same margin but both being anything between 40 and 50 seats short of an overall majority.
They also have a predictor on the site that lets you put in your own results prediction to see what the outcome looks like.
Take it from me (because I've tried numerous) there is no credible result you can put in that comes up with anything other than a hung parliament with the balance of power being held by the SNP.
So unless the last 14 days of the campaign sees some massive changes (and given that there havent been any in the last 3 years or so it's unlikely) we are in for a Labour government propped up by the SNP (as they have already said they wont work with the tories and no other electoral maths works)
Now if she casts her mind back 5 years Nicola Sturgeon is going to realise that Nick Clegg was a prat. He agreed to a coalition government after the tories agreed to his one major demand, a referendum on PR voting. Trouble was he forgot to a) set out the terms of the question and b) suggest to his new buddies in the Conservative party that it might be quite nice if they campaigned for a yes vote.
So Cameron stitched him up, put the least favoured option to the country and campaigned for the no vote. or if you prefer Clegg sold out for nothing!
So now Nicola Sturgeon is in more or less the same position. She's going to want promises on more money for Scotland and presumably a vote on scrapping Trident. But she must know that if these things are put to Parliament as a free vote enough Labour MP's will side with the Tories to vote them down.
So in offering support not only is she going to want votes, shes also going to want labour unequivocal support for them.
Be interesting to see how much of the family Silver Milliband is willing to give away to put himself into No 10
Because if the answer is not much I think we could be back on the election trail inside 18 months.

[Old Cruser]

I thought Nicola Sturgeon actually gave a good speech earlier this week ( or was it last week? )
Anyway I agree in that all the thoughts seemingly now are leaning towards a hung parliament between her and Milliband - how that will go I have no idea.

[therealjr]

Assuming that the Tories pull marginally ahead come polling day (theres usually an incumbent bump and whats known as shy Tory syndrome, apparently some people wont tell pollsters they intend voting tory) it will be interesting to see what happens.
Cameron will I assume try to form some sort of minority government either on his own or in a rainbow coalition with the Lib Dems UKIP and maybe some of the NI parties in the hope that enough centerist labour MP's (I'm thinking people like Frank Field, James Purnell) will vote with them or at least abstain to prevent the SNP lurching the country to the left and holding the labour party to ransom. How long such a government could stay in office is another matter as I said.

[therealjr]

A hung parliament WILL be the outcome the only questions left are which party gets the most seats and which forms the new government. And no the two are not necessarily the same.

[therealjr]

I've worked it out. It's actually genius. As things stand the only possible outcome is a hung parliament and the only possible 'stable' government is a labour/SNP coalition. Presumably the SNP price of doing business is going to be more money for Scotland and another independence vote (with I assume the Labour Party in Scotland either being told to campaign for yes or at least keep quiet. The Scottish people canny as they are then vote no again. Now they have the best of both worlds. All the money they claim they would have if they went off on their own but none of the worries about new currencies, EU membership and companies pulling out of Scotland.

[Fly]

Eureeka 

Is that good   

[Pete]

>> Is that good   

It is if the Nasty party don't get in again... 

[Fly]

Fair comment